Trump counseled? Did the "World War III" end peacefully?
Trump responded! Did the "World War III" end peacefully like this?
Trump counseled? An article read his blockbuster speech on Iran. As soon as the perfect Iraqi temperature was reduced, the U.S. ambassador in Baghdad was almost hit by the Iraqi parliamentarian: Iran's attack on the US base in Iraq violated our sovereignty.
Trump responded! Did the "World War III" end peacefully like this?
Text / Hua Ye & Hu Yidao "We have no casualties."
In the early hours of Beijing on the 9th, Trump's speech on Iran was long overdue and opened his eyes again.
This is both a matter of focus and a hint that we don't have to react too drastically.
The Americans just experienced an extremely anxious night-at 1:20 a.m. on the 8th, dozens of missiles and rockets were lifted from Iran and eventually smashed into the U.S. military base in Iraq. This was exactly 5 days ago the U.S. assassination of Iran Major General Suleimani at the same moment.
Not the agent, but the Iranian national army's direct attack on the US military base.
The grievances of the United States and Iran added a lot of highlights to this night.
And the response of the United States will directly determine the direction of things-is it just a local conflict, or an uncontrollable all-out war or even a nuclear war?
Trump, known for his impulsiveness and irritability, seemed to want to speak as soon as the incident happened, but was probably choked by his colleagues. In his latest speech, Trump looks calm.
"Peace!" Many people feel this way about this speech. Nine minutes after Trump started speaking, the Dow soared 130 points.
Some Chinese netizens said: Witness the peaceful end of the "World War III." Earlier, "World War III" became a hot search word for US netizens after being killed by Suleimani.
President Trump probably had something to say about his stomach.
The first time after Iran attacked a U.S. military base, the White House had heard that Trump was about to speak.
Senior US security officials walked in and out of the White House doorway at night. Among them are familiar faces such as Pompeo, Pence, and Esper.
Soon after, a letter from the palace said: No speech tonight.
After these officials left late at night, Trump finally tweeted:-Everything is fine so far! I will speak tomorrow morning.
After a calm night, Trump spoke at noon Wednesday, Eastern Time.
At 11:25 (0:45 on Thursday, Beijing time), Trump appeared in the spotlight. He was 25 minutes late.
His opening remarks were: "We have no casualties ... U.S. military bases have suffered only minor damage."
This is an extremely important message.
Previous analysis generally believed that the number of U.S. military casualties caused by the 8th attack will become a key indicator-if there are no casualties, there may be some "tacit understanding" between the two sides. If the casualties are severe, the United States will inevitably retaliate.
The media on both sides have their own opinions on this number.
According to the information received by the US media from the US Pentagon, due to early warning, the US military had zero casualties. Iraq and Britain have also said that no casualties have been reported. Iranian media have claimed that the operation killed 80 "American terrorists."
There is currently no official response from Iran.
Trump also said that the U.S. military is "everything ready", but for now, "Iran seems to be giving in," "which is good for all parties."
"We must work together to reach an agreement with Iran to make the world a safer and more peaceful place."
He also warned that the United States will add additional sanctions to Iran.
Even the warnings feel like they are passing by.
Obviously, after weighing the gains and losses precisely, the United States stepped back on the edge of the cliff.
In fact, although Iran ’s shot was directly presented by the national army and its attitude was very strong, in actual action, it chose to use some non-high-end artillery shells to give the US military a firework instead of joking with Israel or the Strait of Hormuz Can also be regarded as relatively restrained.
"We are not seeking escalation or war, but we will defend ourselves from any aggression." Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif said on Twitter.
He also said that the self-defense combat phase has ended.
Both sides seem to be looking for steps.
However, many wars in history were not intentional at first. The hidden dangers of war have not been completely ruled out. The old enemies of the United States and Iran are still standing at the crossroads of war and peace.
However, even with the advent of war, they still have many flexible options.
If Iran adopts the traditional agent war mode, the picture we see may be:
Iranian-backed Shiite militia groups use rockets to suddenly launch attacks on U.S. bases in Iraq-if U.S. military defense is not in place, it may cause casualties to U.S. military personnel, but under the condition that the U.S. military is strengthening its vigilance and defense It can only be based on harassment and attack. It is basically not cheap to shoot a shot and change a place.
From a cost perspective, the weapon platform used by agents in warfare is of a low-end configuration. The use of rockets, simple drones, and bomb attacks is a "home cooking" that does not cost much. But its damage to the U.S. military was limited, and the movements and scenes were not "vigorous."
This is the model Iran has adopted this time. It basically uses short- and medium-range ballistic missiles, including the Conqueror-313 and Qiam-1 ballistic missiles.
However, this is far from all Iranian families. The latest US intelligence assessment shows that Iran has more than 2,000 ballistic missiles. Among them, some have a range of more than 3,000 kilometers, which can be used to strike against a larger range of US military targets or American allies.
And if the United States really wants to fight a real war with Iran, from the perspective of military volume alone, Iran is far from being an opponent of the United States:
——In the latest ranking of the "Global Firepower Index" website, the United States is listed as the country with the strongest military power, Russia is second, and China is ranked third. Iran is in 14th place, even lower than Egypt.
-Iran ’s military expenditure in 2018 was 13.2 billion U.S. dollars, while U.S. military spending was nearly 50 times that of Iran; the Iranian Armed Forces has approximately 600,000 active personnel and 500,000 to 1 million potential reserve personnel, compared to the U.S. Armed Forces There are more than 1.3 million active duty military personnel and more than 800,000 reserve personnel.
At the same time, the U.S. military has a large number of advanced equipment:
The F-35A fifth-generation stealth fighter has been deployed in the US military base in the Middle East and may participate in the battle at any time;
The B-52 strategic bomber is the main weapon of the United States repeatedly in the Middle East. The B-1 bomber and B-2 stealth bomber also often participate in ground strikes.
If the United States wants to conduct a full-scale war in Iran in the Persian Gulf region, it is indispensable for U.S. aircraft carrier and missile destroyer, cruiser, nuclear submarine and other platforms, which are the main means for the United States to attack the enemy outside the defense zone.
However, Iran's possession of conventional-powered submarines and anti-ship missiles may also cause some trouble for the US military. In addition, Iran has a population of 80 million and a stronger military strength. This is bound to be a bloodier fight than the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, and Iran and the United States will both fall into a bloody battle.
And nationally, the United States is more afraid of a protracted war than Iran.
But the above is just a conventional assumption. Don't forget that Iran has another ultimate weapon-nuclear.
According to the US intelligence assessment two years ago, if Iran no longer abides by the relevant commitments in the nuclear agreement and instead develops nuclear weapons rapidly, it will take about a year or so to build a nuclear bomb. Considering that Iran has obtained uranium enrichment technology, With the increase, Iran may shorten its nuclear bomb manufacturing time to half a year or less.
A nuclear war is not entirely impossible in theory. It is only clear to the United States and Iran that this will be a no return.
No one wants to be swallowed by the black hole of nuclear war. After all, a nuclear warhead is the most powerful only on the launch pad.
In the early morning of the 8th, a Ukrainian civil airliner lost contact with the ground 3 minutes after taking off from Iran's Khomeini International Airport, then crashed and the scene was in flames.
This scene was only a few hours after Iran bombarded U.S. military bases.
Many media confirmed that all 176 people on board had died unfortunately, and the crashed plane had been "broken down."
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine stated that there were 82 Iranians, 63 Canadians, 11 Ukrainians (including 9 crew members, 2 passengers), 10 Swedes and 3 Germans on the Boeing 737-800. , 3 Britons and 4 Afghans.
Because time is too coincidental, it is hard not to remind people that an Iranian civil airliner was shot down by the US military in 1988, and all 290 civilians on board were killed.
The United States stated at the time that it was a "miss" and eventually compensated eight years after the incident.
But it never made an apology, only expressed "regret".
Later on the 8th, the Ukrainian ambassador to Iran stated that preliminary investigations had ruled out the possibility of the passenger plane being shot down or being attacked by terrorists. The real cause of the crash was an engine failure.
But it quickly retracted this statement, saying that the cause of the accident was determined based on the final investigation, and the previous statements were not counted.
Multinational aviation administrations quickly issued flight bans, prohibiting or restricting civil aircraft from flying over Iraqi and Iranian airspace, as well as the waters of the Persian Gulf.
The sky in this area became more turbulent at this moment. (Make up a knife)