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Time: 06:00:00, January 9, 2020
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Changan Automobile (000625) Company Review: Changan Autonomous Outstanding Sales Rebounded to Meet 2020
Category: Company Organization: Tianfeng Securities Co., Ltd. Researcher: Deng Xue / Wen Kang Date: 2020-01-08
event:
The company released its December sales report. The company's overall sales were 194,000 units, a year-on-year increase of + 31% and a month-on-month increase of + 9.8%.

For the full year of 2019, 1.76 million vehicles were sold, a decline of 15% (Note: Due to the completion of the equity change, the previous and previous figures did not include JMC Holdings).

Reviews:
Sales in December increased year-on-year, and Changan's independent performance was dazzling. Starting in November, Changan Automobile's overall sales resumed growth. Among them, Changan Autonomous (Chongqing Changan, Hebei Changan, Hefei Changan) products have performed well. Sales have continued to increase since July. In December, sales reached 10 million units, a year-on-year growth rate of 81%, and a chain + 12%.

Changan Ford turned positive for the first time in the past two years. Changan Ford sold 18,000 vehicles in December, a year-on-year increase of + 0.8%, achieving its first positive increase since July 2017. In terms of models, Ruijie sold 3,800 vehicles in December, a year-on-year increase of + 26%, and Furuis sold 5,570 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of + 36%. With the acceleration of new model launches, Changan Ford's recovery journey is expected to begin.

Transfer of Changan Peugeot Citroen to resolve the loss burden. On January 1, Changan Automobile issued an announcement that it intends to transfer 50% equity of Changan Peugeot Citroen to Shenzhen Qianhai Ruizhi with a transfer amount of 1.63 billion yuan. Changan Peugeot Citroen began operations in 2011, with a cumulative loss of 2.233 billion yuan, which dragged down Changan Automobile 's net profit. After the transfer, the company's loss burden is expected to decrease. The company can focus more resources on its own brands and Changan Ford, and it will be young in 2020.

The Lincoln Adventurer pre-sale opens, and luxury brand vacancies are filled. On December 27, Changan Ford's domestic Lincoln adventurer pre-sale started and the price was 248,000-35 thousand yuan. The domestic adventurer is basically the same as the overseas model, with a bilateral exhaust layout, with a length, width, and height of 4615/1887 / 1630mm and a wheelbase of 2711mm. The new car will be officially listed in the first quarter of 2020. Lincoln will fill the vacancy of Changan without a luxury brand. .

Investment suggestion: It is the current low point of the industry's inventory cycle and the bottom of the industry. With the withdrawal of low-end production capacity in the future, the concentration of the industry will increase, and the market competition will improve marginally. Due to the increase in profit brought by the sale of equity and the optimization and improvement of the asset structure, we expect the company's net profit attributable to the parent in 2019-2021 to be 170 million, 3.8 billion and 6 billion, respectively, corresponding to PE of 302, 13 and 9 times. Changan Automobile is given 10 times PE for 21 years, corresponding to the company's target price of 12.50 yuan, maintaining the "Buy" rating.

Risk reminders: Macroeconomic stabilization is less than expected, Changan Ford's new car introduction rate is less than expected, Changan Ford and Changan's independent sales performance is less than expected
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