South Korea's production capacity exits LCD supply and demand improvement, institutions focus on a few stocks
1. On the supply side, South Korean manufacturers Samsung and LG will withdraw their production capacity and reduce production in Q4 2019. If LGD stops production of Korean TV panels before the end of the year, the global LCD supply growth rate is expected to slow down significantly. On the demand side, large-scale sports events such as the Olympic Games and the European Cup have driven terminal sales growth. Superimposed 5G has helped UHD video to gradually spread and drive the average sales size of TV panels to continue to increase. LCD TV panels will also be boosted on the demand side.
2. According to the data of Qunzhi Consulting, the market share of mainland LCD TV panels in 2017Q1 was about 30%, and it has increased to 48% in the first three quarters of 2019. At present, LGD occupies about 20% of the LCD TV panel industry, of which Korea ’s domestic production capacity accounts for about 60%. If the Korean domestic production line is closed before the end of the year, it is expected that the industry supply will be reduced by more than 10%, and the production capacity of high-generation LCD production lines in China will be superimposed The gradual release will further increase the share of domestic panel companies, and it is expected that the proportion of shipments in 2021 is expected to increase to more than 60%. Huaxi Securities said that in 2020, the market share of Chinese panel makers' LCD TV panel shipments is expected to increase from 47% to 58%.
3. Industrial Securities expects that from January 2020, the price of LCD TV panels will rebound. As for the price increase, it is estimated to be about 10-20%, and the rise time is expected to be maintained from the first quarter to Season 2. Ping An Securities said that it is expected that the current round of price increases will continue until April 2020, with an average price increase of 10-15%; and whether the price increase in the second half of 2020 will continue to be tracked. Guoxin Securities believes that this round of price increases is expected to continue to this year's Q3 ~ Q4 (September ~ October), and the overall panel price will increase by about 30%.
Dongguan Securities , Ping An Securities and Guoxin Securities all suggested paying attention to BOE A and TCL Group .
Huaxi Securities recommends: BOE A, Shentianma A, TCL Group .
Yuekai Securities recommended investment portfolio: BOE A, TCL Group , Crystal Optoelectronics , Changxin Technology .
Chuancai Securities said that the optical field is concerned about BOE A, TCL Group , Weir Shares , Crystal Optoelectronics , and Huiding Technology .
The content of this article is selected from the following research reports:
Dongguan securities electronics industry dynamic comment: Korean companies withdraw from production capacity + terminal sales boost, the TV panel industry is expected to enter the upward channel;
Industrial Securities Electronics Weekly Report: Korean businessmen are actively reducing production, panel quotations are about to rebound, and in the future, the Korean businessmen's share will be taken over by two domestic manufacturers;
Ping An Securities Electronics Industry Dynamic Tracking Report: Short-term supply and demand of LCD TV panels improved, and domestic plants' speaking power gradually increased;
Guangdong Kai Securities Electronics Industry Weekly Report: South Korean factory's production capacity withdrawal changes supply and demand pattern, optimistic about the recovery of large-size panels in 2020;
Chuancai Securities Electronics Industry Weekly Report: The cycle bottomed out and technology innovation was added, and the panel market rebounded;
Guoxin Securities IT hardware and equipment: the three major expectations of the current panel industry;
Huaxi Securities Electronics: The panel industry cycle is expected to open up channels.