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Old Ai Kan shares: Will external conflicts end the A-share bull market?

Time: January 08, 2020 17:02:40 China Finance
Although far away, the tension in the Middle East disrupted the rising rhythm of A shares and ended yesterday's strong upward momentum.

This is the transmission effect between the global stock markets. There was no relationship with us for a dime, but human emotions will be transmitted, causing many funds to escape from risk.

Mainly due to the uncertain international situation, many things are beyond our control and even unpredictable. Just like the morning air strike, no one expected to launch a counterattack so soon, and it was still very strong.

The most uncertain thing in the session was the attitude of the US side. The delay in not expressing a stand made people wonder how the US side would react. The least reassuring thing about the stock market is uncertainty. Once encountering this situation, many people will subconsciously avoid it first.

This is the main reason for the decline in the afternoon, coupled with the recent strong performance of A-shares, especially when the outer disk fell in the past two days, we have not fallen, and are still rushing upwards, constantly making new highs. There is a risk of making up.

So today's trend is "hedging + making up for losses", which is why the GEM that led the gains in the past two days turned around to lead the decline.

But I have to say that the bull market complex of A shares is still there. A strong counter-attack before midday, the Shenzhen index, the small and medium-sized board, and the CSI 100 0 index all turned red. Many people are still looking forward to opening lower on Monday. The good show of walking is staged again.

Unfortunately, the market will not simply repeat, because the situation is different. At that time, it was thought that there would be no war, but the Iranian counterattack, the risk of starting a war increased sharply, and it is naturally impossible to repeat the trend on Monday.

Therefore, we must do an independent analysis, keep a calm head at all times, we cannot lose direction in the herd effect, and it is not possible to follow the flow.

In view of the fact that the external situation is completely uncontrollable and uncontrollable, we can only pay more attention to the news and the trend of the outer disk. At night, we must regain our strength and the United States must show its attitude, otherwise it will be too shameless. At the same time, leave more surprises. Not only European and American stock markets, but also international gold and crude oil need attention, which will affect A-share related sectors.

But you don't have to worry too much, as long as very extreme situations do not occur, the impact on A shares is expected to be limited. The major indexes did not close at the lowest point, and there was still a wave of back draws in the end, indicating that there was still a bold entry to the bottom.

This includes foreign capital. In the end, the northward inflow of funds flowed straight again, making a net inflow of 3.4 billion yuan throughout the day. In the circumstances of the storm, foreign capital is not afraid. Why should we be so afraid?

In the long run, the bull market will not change if extreme events do not occur. However, in the short term, due to the unpredictable external environment, we can only wait for the clarity of the news.

Once the external situation stabilizes, including the US stocks have not fallen sharply, tomorrow's A-shares still have the opportunity to rebound. You can maintain a patience, while keeping a close eye on the news and the outer disk.
Zhongcai
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